Dylan Ryan’s gambling corner: Thursday September 3rd

I have been HOT this week betting the puck. I’ve been deadly accurate with my two team parlays hitting on Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately forgot to blog about those picks, I guess that’s just what happens when you say “fuck it! I’ve got a good feeling about this let’s do it” ten minutes before the first game starts. Well Wednesday didn’t even have two games so I went with my gut and bet on Nathan Mackinnon to score a goal and the Avalanche to win with about 5 minutes to go before puck drop. That beautiful Canadian Mackinnon got an empty netter and the Avalanche won 4-1.

Well today we’ve got two Stanley Cup playoff games, the Flyers versus the Islanders, and the Knights versus Canucks. So had to ride the hot hand and come up with a two team parlay. Honestly both games are intriguing matchups.

Will Mathew Barzal be available for the Islanders? Right now he’s questionable, which could mean anything in terms of hockey injury reports. My pick in that game depends on whether or not Barzal is playing, he’s the engine that drives the Islanders scoring, without him I don’t see the Islanders winning tonight. Although, Sean Couturier is another scoring engine that might not play tonight for the Flyers, so the team that can adjust to not having a top scoring forward better will win. Uh, no duh.

For the Canucks can Thatcher Demko play lights out like he did in game five? The Canucks got outshot 3-1 in game five and won due to Demko’s phenomenal play, if the Canucks are outshot 3-1 again no way they win tonight. The Canucks can win the game, but they’re going to have to limit shots and get more pucks on the Knights net to help out their own goalie. Knights did every possible thing to win game five, if they do the exact same thing in game six they’ll be able to put more than one goal past Demko this time round.

Let’s get to the picks already.

The first game is of course the East Coast game, Islanders versus Flyers. So what’s the deal with Barzal? What about Couturier?

Mat Barzal will be a game time decision. #Isles — Brian Compton (@BComptonNHL) September 3, 2020
Sean Couturier: Injury: Couturier is questionable for Game 6 vs. the Islanders. https://t.co/e26dvKQVtE — Daily Faceoff (@DailyFaceoff) September 3, 2020

Both game time decisions. Flyers coach said they’ve got a “next man up” mentality so it doesn’t sound too good for Couturier to be playing tonight. Considering both teams are missing an important part to their offense I’m looking at goaltending to pick this bet.

Goaltending has been great on both ends of the ice. Varlomov has been stellar and Hart has been as well. They both have a .929% save percentage, but Hart has the higher goals allowed average. Advantage Islanders.

I’m taking the Islanders to win and under 5.5 goals. The goaltending from both teams has been awesome and with both the Islanders and Flyers missing a key scoring forward this game screams low scoring, or at least average scoring. The big difference is Barzal’s status to play tonight is slightly more optimistic than Couturier. Islanders to win and under 5.5 goals (+165)

The second game of the day is Knights versus Canucks.

Seriously the Knights just need to play the exact same game as they did in game five. Knights had 43 shots on goal last game and Thatcher Demko stopped 42 of them. Can the 24 year old goalie play lights out again and keep the Knights at bay? It seems unlikely that the guy can stop all but one shot on goal again, but shit crazier things have happened. Not something I see happening. Taking the Knights to win this one. Much simpler game to pick. Canucks are starting a young goalie, Knights are a much better team all around and with the amount of shots the Knights had last game I’m predicting a high scoring affair. Knights to win and over 5.5 goals (+125).

Like I said earlier, I’ve been HOT on my two team parlays. So obviously I’m parlaying these two bets to boost the odds a bit. The parlay odds are +496 and I am hammering it. Islanders win and under 5.5 goals plus the Knights win and over 5.5 goals. Book it.

PS

Not gonna lie to you I’m gonna hedge this parlay a bit and hop on the Flyers moneyline (+105) and the Canucks money line (+200) as well. Won’t parlay those bets though.

PPS

Because I am a degenerate gambler I’m going to throw a few bucks on guessing the first goal scorer for each game. It’s a 1/32 chance to get it right so I always go with a name I know well that has high odds. Pageau for the Islanders at +1600 and Horvat for the Canucks at +1500. I never put a ton of money into these cause the odds of getting it right are pretty low, but damn it’s fun to bet on first goal scorer.

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